WEDNESDAY, SEP 8, 2010

Dem Lieutenant Governor candidate to visit Saginaw at 1 pm today.
Southfield Mayor Brenda Lawrence has a press conference at 1 pm.
1444 Maine Street (near Jerome School). Please attend!

For our county party's Events Calendar, please go to http://www.saginawdems.org     

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News
7/13/2010 11:35:40 PM
State House candidate and others to discuss education funding at public forum in Saginaw
6/7/2010 12:06:01 AM
Voter Information Night
10/1/2009 6:08:26 AM
How they voted
7/10/2009 10:09:52 AM
An Early Look at 2010 State Senate Races
7/9/2009 9:09:43 AM
Armando Falcon, for fresh, new ideas in Saginaw
5/10/2009 5:06:09 PM
SADC Bylaws Changes
4/26/2009 4:53:58 AM
Jefferson-Jackson Dinner
1/20/2009 12:12:27 PM
Obama Inaugural Address
is a Call to Service
12/1/2008 1:07:10 PM
President Obama's Cabinet
Coming Together
Former Rival Hillary Clinton To Join Diverse Team
8/12/2008 8:34:45 PM
Help Your Favorite Candidates Through Support of SADC
8/8/2008 9:19:02 AM
A Tribute to the Man
Behind the Badge
Sheriff Brown's Service Remembered
8/6/2008 12:10:17 AM
Federspiel Tops Brown
in Dem Sheriff Race
Lewis, Coulouris, Thomas Win Contests
8/2/2008 7:25:18 PM
Vote on Tuesday, August 5th for SADC Endorsed Candidates and Other Democrats
7/9/2008 9:09:33 PM
SADC Endorses Newcomers to Bench and Board
7/5/2008 8:40:06 AM
Our Candidates Need Your Help!
7/3/2008 9:24:42 AM
The Unanimous Declaration of the Thirteen United States of America
6/13/2008 4:57:20 AM
Stem Cell Research (ballot initiative) Presentation
5/11/2008 11:30:00 AM
2nd Annual Progressive Policy Summit Emphasizes Working Together
4/23/2008 8:49:13 AM
Earth Day Cleanup is SADC's Best Ever
4/21/2008 9:04:30 AM
SADC & Garnet Lewis Team Up to Clean Up on Earth Day
4/20/2008 11:28:12 AM
Reports from the Field in a Busy Political Weekend
4/19/2008 6:57:39 PM
Local Media Puts Spotlight on
Saginaw Area Democratic Club
4/11/2008 9:39:09 PM
Saginaw County Democratic Party Adds to List of Endorsed Candidates
4/10/2008 1:15:12 PM
Blaine Gains Club Support Again

Marv Hare, Mike Thomas, Charlie Brown add SADC Endorsements

3/21/2008 8:25:28 AM
Saginaw Area Democratic Club Endorses Three
3/14/2008 12:35:49 PM
Saginaw County Democratic Party Announces Early Endorsements
2/22/2008 1:25:07 PM
Will Dems Unite?
2/15/2008 5:51:33 AM
Michigan Dem National Convention Delegate Allocations
2/11/2008 6:13:13 AM
The Dem Prez Race Feb 11
2/8/2008 3:27:57 PM
Convention Delegate Allocation Announced
by Michigan Democratic Party
2/6/2008 6:20:10 AM
Super Tuesday
1/29/2008 8:53:40 PM
Saginaw Area Democratic Club
Plans for Active 2008
1/27/2008 6:44:32 AM
OBAMA VICTORY IN SOUTH CAROLINA
1/10/2008 9:00:17 AM
New Look on Saginaw County Democratic Party Board
1/8/2008 10:01:23 PM
A SPECTACULAR COMEBACK IN NEW HAMPSHIRE FOR HILLARY
1/4/2008 6:58:45 AM
Iowa Caucus results analysis
1/2/2008 5:44:06 AM
THE IOWA CAUCUS
9/22/2007 11:05:32 PM
Club President Garnet Lewis
Decides on Lansing Run,
Honors Struggle for Equality
9/17/2007 8:22:25 AM
Celebrate the Constitution, September 17th and Every Day
9/14/2007 9:04:55 PM
Former Secretary of State Albright Inspires Future Leaders at Alma College
9/11/2007 8:19:16 AM
In Memoriam
9/2/2007 8:38:30 PM
John Edwards is the Convincing Winner of SADC Straw Poll
8/31/2007 9:08:40 PM
Remembering Labor Day:
More than Bridge Walks & BBQs
8/10/2007 11:25:15 AM
It's Saginaw's Birthday
Let's Party!
7/20/2007 1:25:16 PM
Great Volunteer Turnout in Saginaw for Adopt-a-Park Project
5/16/2007 11:02:01 AM
Saginaw Area Democratic Club Adopts-a-Highway
3/7/2007 8:28:29 AM
Vote on proposed Saginaw City Charter revision nixed by state
2/10/2007 11:06:05 PM
County Convention Adopts Two Resolutions
12/16/2006 5:52:32 AM
Bob Blaine Elected
SCDP Chairman
12/7/2006 4:43:57 PM
New Charter Is Proposed
For Saginaw
11/23/2006 9:28:43 AM
CARL WILLIAMS
ASKS FOR A RECOUNT
11/18/2006 3:42:34 PM
The SADC "Votes For President"
11/7/2006 11:49:08 PM
Big Night!
Granholm and Stabenow Return to Posts.
Dems take U.S. Congress and State House!
10/30/2006 5:38:10 PM
Saginaw Area Democratic Club Phone Banking Through Election Day
10/29/2006 6:18:06 PM
Demonstrate Against DeVos Spouse at GOP Headquarters
10/28/2006 2:07:25 PM
Blaine Campaign Faces Rain- Doesn't Complain- Great Momentum is Sustained.
10/24/2006 11:14:50 PM
The Saginaw News
Hosts a Debate in Carrollton
10/21/2006 12:34:10 PM
Monday, October 23rd Granholm Rally at Iron Workers Hall in Zilwaukee
10/12/2006 11:38:21 AM
Where's Roger?
10/12/2006 11:09:57 AM
A hilarious goof-up by a Republican County Clerk
10/12/2006 10:36:41 AM
Senate candidate debate at SVSU fails to take place
10/10/2006 6:08:59 AM
State Senate candidates Carl Williams (Dem) and Roger Kahn (GOP) debate each other at Alma College
10/4/2006 12:48:52 AM
The First Debate was a Granholm Knockout of a Dazed and Confused DeVos
9/28/2006 7:26:04 PM
Governor Granholm takes on DeVos in 1st Debate
9/13/2006 8:29:33 PM
Secretary of State Candidate Carmella Sabaugh visits Saginaw
9/11/2006 5:48:23 AM
In Memoriam
9/9/2006 9:20:39 PM
Granholm and Stabenow visit Saginaw
9/7/2006 1:59:24 PM
Michigan Senators make an agreement with Ontario over incoming Canadian trash
9/4/2006 11:46:31 AM
The A-B-Cs of Political Voluteering
9/2/2006 11:02:58 PM
Thoughts on Labor Day
9/1/2006 9:18:26 PM
Governor Granholm is Good Luck for the Detroit Tigers
8/28/2006 2:35:46 PM
Observations on the 2006 Democratic Convention
8/27/2006 2:14:34 PM
Convention Delegates Choose Amos Williams and Carmella Sabaugh
8/24/2006 10:41:43 AM
Saginaw County Platform Delegates Report
8/23/2006 2:18:47 PM
Saginaw County Convention Passes Five Resolutions
8/22/2006 10:35:54 AM
Dangers of MCRI Outlined in Town Hall Meeting
8/16/2006 1:15:59 PM
Bob Blaine Speaks Out on Canadian Trash
8/11/2006 11:51:05 AM
Unity Breakfast Pulls Democratic Competitors Together
8/9/2006 1:46:32 AM
Carl Williams, Andy Coulouris, and Jan Sutherland Celebrate Primary Victories
7/27/2006 4:09:56 PM
Saginaw Area Democratic Club Endorses Incumbent Judges and Democratic Candidates
7/20/2006 1:10:20 PM
95th House Candidates: Differing Perspectives with a Unified Purpose
7/3/2006 1:38:19 AM
MDP Chairman Mark Brewer Press Conference at the SADC
6/20/2006 3:16:30 PM
Forum Brings Senate Candidates into Focus
5/28/2006 3:55:25 PM
MI Attorney General Debate
4/14/2006 8:13:15 PM
Governor Granholm at the SADC Office Grand Opening
12/5/2005 2:12:25 PM
US Senator Carl Levin Visits Saginaw Dems
On November 28, Michigans US Senator Carl Levin came to Saginaw and had an informal visit with Saginaw Democrats.
In the News
The Dem Prez Race Feb 11
The media talk does not reveal the true state of the Democratic race for the presidential nomination. They like to talk about the Dem race being tied, to get more interest and boost their ratings. Here is what is really going on.
On the internet, at websites outside the US, people can wager on who will win the nomination. Barack is about a 2 to 1 favorite in this wagering. These odds likely reflect reality.
In primaries and caucuses, all the polls show a monster lead for Obama on "Potomac Tuesday," Feb 12, where Virginia, Maryland, and DC go to the polls. Even a polling error with the magnitude of that in New Hampshire would not be sufficent for Hillary to win one of these contests. This hat trick will represent a streak of eight victories in a row for Barack Obama. That is a lot of momentum for Barack.
Later this month, two more states will vote: Wisconsin and Hawaii. Clinton has a 9-point lead in Wisconsin at this moment. Hawaii is somewhat murky because of the lack of polling. But the contest is a caucus and Obama graduated from high school there, so he must be the favorite. Therefore, Wisconsin looks like a must-win for Hillary to break Obama's streak before March 4.
March 4 is a critical date for the presidential race. Two hugely important states get to vote, Texas and Ohio. Clinton at present has a double-digit lead in both states. If she loses either of them, the race is over for her. Losing Texas would mean Obama has made sufficient inroads into the Latino voters to win in a state that has a huge number of those voters, who were critical to Clinton's California win. And anyone not living in a cave understands what Ohio means to the Democratic party in the general election.
The last issue I will address is the super delegates question. Hillary on paper has a large lead with those people. Will they swing the selection of Obama to Clinton if Obama leads in the delegate count? NO, NO, NO.
The Republican party is in disarray. Only a common enemy can unite them. You all know who is that person. This is a big selling point for Obama. Besides, Obama runs better against McCain than Clinton does, because he wins the independents. The super delegates are not legally committed to anyone at any point, no matter what they are saying right now. Most importantly, Obama has won far more states, a trend that looks irreversible. Many of those states are in Republican territory, where it is unquestionable that Obama will be of greater help in state and local races. Do you really think people from those states are going to go home from the National Democratic Convention having a vote that sells out their state party?
It is said that the Democrats are capable of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. I do not believe it will happen in 2008. The only way McCain can win in November, no matter who is at the top of the ticket, is if Obama leads in delegates going into the convention and has the nomination taken away from him by the super delegates. The odds on that happening are close to zero; super-delegate Dems are not ignorant of political realities.
Lastly, what would happen if the Democratgic Party lost its mind and stabbed Obama in the back at the national convention after leading going in? He would probably not support the nominee. He might even start his own independent party and run in 2012. If he did, would you bet against him? That twerp Perot got nearly 20% of the vote in 1992. What proportion of the vote do you think Barack Obama would get in 2012, especially if he laid the inexperience charge to rest after getting elected governor of Illinois in 2010? Probably enough to win the presidency, and cut the guts out of both the Dem and GOP parties on the way. Do you think the super delegates to the 2008 Democratic Convention will risk this possibility? They would be insane to do so.
I rest my case!
Posted: Monday, February 11, 2008
Author: Bob Ciaffone
Email: thecoach@chartermi.net
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